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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 1,4x - 1,5x | 1,5x |
Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 1,4x - 1,5x | 1,5x |
Fair Value | 1.446¥ - 1.562¥ | 1.504¥ |
Upside | 15,0% - 24,2% | 19,6% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
---|---|---|
Mandom Corporation | 4917 | TSE:4917 |
Noevir Holdings Co., Ltd. | 4928 | TSE:4928 |
Milbon Co., Ltd. | 4919 | TSE:4919 |
Shiseido Company, Limited | 4911 | TSE:4911 |
KOSÉ Corporation | 4922 | TSE:4922 |
Pola Orbis Holdings Inc. | 4927 | TSE:4927 |
Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
4917 | 4928 | 4919 | 4911 | 4922 | 4927 | |||
TSE:4917 | TSE:4928 | TSE:4919 | TSE:4911 | TSE:4922 | TSE:4927 | |||
Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
5Y CAGR | -1.5% | 1.5% | 7.2% | -2.6% | -0.6% | -5.0% | ||
3Y CAGR | 5.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | -1.5% | 4.9% | -1.6% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | 5.2% | 1.7% | 7.4% | 1.8% | 7.4% | -1.7% | ||
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 0.8% | 16.9% | 16.0% | 2.6% | 8.0% | 8.9% | ||
Prior Fiscal Year | 2.1% | 17.6% | 11.6% | 1.8% | 5.3% | 9.3% | ||
Latest Fiscal Year | 2.8% | 17.9% | 13.3% | -1.0% | 5.4% | 8.1% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | 1.5% | 17.3% | 13.3% | -1.0% | 5.4% | 8.1% | ||
Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 0.37x | 1.84x | 1.61x | 1.43x | 0.81x | 1.22x | ||
EV / LTM EBIT | 24.4x | 10.7x | 12.1x | 196.8x | 15.1x | 15.0x | ||
Price / LTM Sales | 0.79x | 2.25x | 1.90x | 1.14x | 1.13x | 1.67x | ||
Low | Mid | High | ||||||
Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.37x | 1.43x | 1.84x | |||||
Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 1.22x | 1.74x | 1.99x | |||||
Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 1.40x | 1.47x | 1.54x | |||||
(x) LTM Revenue | 170,359 | 170,359 | 170,359 | |||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 237,957 | 250,481 | 263,005 | |||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 77,352 | 77,352 | 77,352 | |||||
(=) Equity Value | 315,309 | 327,833 | 340,357 | |||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 221.3 | 221.3 | 221.3 | |||||
Implied Value Range | 1,425.02 | 1,481.63 | 1,538.23 | |||||
FX Rate: JPY/JPY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 1,425.02 | 1,481.63 | 1,538.23 | 1,257.50 | ||||
Upside / (Downside) | 13.3% | 17.8% | 22.3% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 4917 | 4928 | 4919 | 4911 | 4922 | 4927 | |
Enterprise Value | 27,905 | 114,108 | 80,832 | 1,266,501 | 250,356 | 200,889 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 28,983 | 23,270 | 13,830 | 98,479 | 113,970 | 64,083 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 9,316 | 4,164 | 875 | 112,572 | 16,750 | 15,407 | |
(-) Debt | (89) | (806) | 0 | (363,160) | (11,222) | (2,115) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (6,443) | (525) | 0 | (22,169) | (18,334) | (23) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 59,672 | 140,211 | 95,537 | 1,092,223 | 351,520 | 278,241 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 45.1 | 34.2 | 32.6 | 399.4 | 57.1 | 221.3 | |
Implied Stock Price | 1,322.00 | 4,105.00 | 2,934.00 | 2,734.50 | 6,160.00 | 1,257.50 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1,322.00 | 4,105.00 | 2,934.00 | 2,734.50 | 6,160.00 | 1,257.50 | |
Trading Currency | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | JPY | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |