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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 12,6x - 13,9x | 13,2x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 17,6x - 19,5x | 18,6x |
| Fair Value | 3,82¥ - 4,19¥ | 4,01¥ |
| Upside | 8,9% - 19,5% | 14,2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Pacific Millennium Packaging Group Corporation | 1820 | SEHK:1820 |
| Rengo Co., Ltd. | 3941 | TSE:3941 |
| Shanghai Ailu Package Co., Ltd. | 301062 | SZSE:301062 |
| Jiangsu Shuangxing Color Plastic New Materials Co., Ltd. | 2585 | SZSE:002585 |
| Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co., Ltd. | 603022 | SHSE:603022 |
| MYS Group Co., Ltd. | 2303 | SZSE:002303 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 1820 | 3941 | 301062 | 2585 | 603022 | 2303 | ||
| SEHK:1820 | TSE:3941 | SZSE:301062 | SZSE:002585 | SHSE:603022 | SZSE:002303 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -14.6% | 11.4% | 11.5% | -18.7% | 13.1% | -7.2% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -14.8% | 8.1% | -6.5% | -40.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -33.3% | -0.4% | 24.9% | -107.7% | 39.2% | 46.0% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 7.0% | 10.5% | 17.0% | 17.6% | 8.4% | 9.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 6.7% | 8.7% | 14.1% | 18.8% | 7.6% | 5.1% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 4.2% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 4.6% | 10.5% | 10.0% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 4.2% | 10.0% | 13.6% | -0.5% | 10.8% | 12.0% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.07x | 0.41x | 3.93x | 1.06x | 1.79x | 1.28x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 25.4x | 4.1x | 28.8x | -233.3x | 16.6x | 10.7x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 188.2x | 10.0x | 41.9x | -9.8x | 23.2x | 14.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -233.3x | 16.6x | 28.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 14.0x | 14.6x | 24.0x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 12.6x | 13.2x | 13.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 463 | 463 | 463 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 5,829 | 6,136 | 6,442 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 477 | 477 | 477 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 6,306 | 6,613 | 6,920 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,531.3 | 1,531.3 | 1,531.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 4.12 | 4.32 | 4.52 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 4.12 | 4.32 | 4.52 | 3.51 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 17.3% | 23.0% | 28.7% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 1820 | 3941 | 301062 | 2585 | 603022 | 2303 | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,282 | 393,503 | 4,643 | 6,054 | 1,549 | 4,898 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 124 | 90,201 | 228 | 551 | 192 | 1,824 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 192,548 | 56 | 742 | 37 | 40 | |
| (-) Debt | (998) | (457,501) | (1,077) | (1,526) | (76) | (1,322) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (36,037) | (7) | 0 | (4) | (64) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,408 | 182,714 | 3,843 | 5,821 | 1,698 | 5,375 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 300.6 | 247.8 | 432.3 | 1,141.3 | 200.0 | 1,531.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 4.68 | 737.30 | 8.89 | 5.10 | 8.49 | 3.51 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.94 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 5.00 | 737.30 | 8.89 | 5.10 | 8.49 | 3.51 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | JPY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.94 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |