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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 19,7x - 21,7x | 20,7x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 37,3x - 41,2x | 39,2x |
| Fair Value | 4,33¥ - 4,75¥ | 4,54¥ |
| Upside | 21,5% - 33,4% | 27,5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Pacific Millennium Packaging Group Corporation | 1820 | SEHK:1820 |
| Rengo Co., Ltd. | 3941 | TSE:3941 |
| Shanghai Ailu Package Co., Ltd. | 301062 | SZSE:301062 |
| Jiangsu Shuangxing Color Plastic New Materials Co., Ltd. | 2585 | SZSE:002585 |
| Shanghai Xintonglian Packaging Co., Ltd. | 603022 | SHSE:603022 |
| MYS Group Co., Ltd. | 2303 | SZSE:002303 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 1820 | 3941 | 301062 | 2585 | 603022 | 2303 | ||
| SEHK:1820 | TSE:3941 | SZSE:301062 | SZSE:002585 | SHSE:603022 | SZSE:002303 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -38.6% | 14.1% | 9.3% | NM- | 15.5% | -12.8% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -47.2% | 6.9% | -12.2% | NM- | 15.4% | 1.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -78.7% | -12.5% | 42.8% | -165.3% | 62.3% | 108.5% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 3.7% | 4.8% | 12.8% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 2.8% | 3.1% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 4.5% | 1.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 0.6% | 5.4% | 8.5% | -6.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 0.6% | 4.2% | 9.4% | -10.8% | 7.7% | 8.8% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.08x | 0.44x | 4.24x | 1.09x | 1.72x | 1.31x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 25.6x | 4.4x | 31.1x | -240.3x | 16.0x | 10.9x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 189.8x | 10.6x | 45.2x | -10.1x | 22.3x | 14.9x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -10.1x | 22.3x | 189.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 17.1x | 27.8x | 81.0x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 19.7x | 20.7x | 21.7x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 340 | 340 | 340 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 6,694 | 7,046 | 7,399 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 477 | 477 | 477 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 7,171 | 7,524 | 7,876 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,531.3 | 1,531.3 | 1,531.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 4.68 | 4.91 | 5.14 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 4.68 | 4.91 | 5.14 | 3.56 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 31.5% | 38.0% | 44.5% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 1820 | 3941 | 301062 | 2585 | 603022 | 2303 | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,279 | 415,033 | 5,010 | 6,225 | 1,509 | 4,974 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 124 | 90,201 | 228 | 551 | 192 | 1,824 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 192,548 | 56 | 742 | 37 | 40 | |
| (-) Debt | (998) | (457,501) | (1,077) | (1,526) | (76) | (1,322) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (36,037) | (7) | 0 | (4) | (64) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,404 | 204,244 | 4,210 | 5,992 | 1,658 | 5,452 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 300.6 | 247.8 | 432.3 | 1,141.3 | 200.0 | 1,531.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 4.67 | 824.18 | 9.74 | 5.25 | 8.29 | 3.56 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 5.00 | 824.18 | 9.74 | 5.25 | 8.29 | 3.56 | |
| Trading Currency | HKD | JPY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |