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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 20,5x - 22,6x | 21,5x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 28,6x - 31,6x | 30,1x |
| Fair Value | 14,66¥ - 16,52¥ | 15,59¥ |
| Upside | -8,3% - 3,3% | -2,5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Beijing Changjiu Logistics Co.,Ltd | 603569 | SHSE:603569 |
| Hubei Three Gorges Tourism Group Co., Ltd. | 2627 | SZSE:002627 |
| GuangDong GenSho Logistics Co.,LTD | 603813 | SHSE:603813 |
| Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. | YMM | NYSE:YMM |
| Sichuan Fulin Transportation Group Co., Ltd. | 2357 | SZSE:002357 |
| Guangdong Jushen Logistics Co., Ltd. | 1202 | SZSE:001202 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 603569 | 2627 | 603813 | YMM | 2357 | 1202 | ||
| SHSE:603569 | SZSE:002627 | SHSE:603813 | NYSE:YMM | SZSE:002357 | SZSE:001202 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -32.1% | -12.2% | -23.8% | NM- | -24.8% | 11.1% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -29.6% | -10.6% | NM- | NM- | 9.1% | -10.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -9.0% | 103.4% | -68.8% | 131.5% | -160.8% | 23.7% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 3.0% | 4.4% | -0.4% | -39.5% | 2.3% | 9.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 1.1% | -2.4% | 10.6% | 12.7% | -1.0% | 5.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 2.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 22.0% | 2.1% | 8.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 2.2% | 9.8% | 0.9% | 22.0% | -3.5% | 11.4% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.53x | 3.29x | 5.65x | 4.86x | 1.90x | 2.47x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 21.2x | 14.2x | 50.1x | 21.4x | 14.5x | 16.6x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 69.7x | 33.6x | 655.5x | 22.1x | -55.0x | 21.7x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -55.0x | 33.6x | 655.5x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 22.9x | 28.0x | 39.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 20.5x | 21.5x | 22.6x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 111 | 111 | 111 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,268 | 2,387 | 2,507 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (382) | (382) | (382) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,886 | 2,005 | 2,124 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 126.3 | 126.3 | 126.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 14.93 | 15.87 | 16.82 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 14.93 | 15.87 | 16.82 | 15.99 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -6.6% | -0.7% | 5.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 603569 | 2627 | 603813 | YMM | 2357 | 1202 | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,853 | 2,883 | 1,941 | 54,583 | 1,642 | 2,402 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 551 | 1,381 | 164 | 20,813 | 111 | 107 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 593 | 116 | 3 | 9,876 | 1,251 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,964) | (382) | (629) | (65) | (543) | (489) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (295) | (237) | (0) | (458) | (72) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 4,738 | 3,761 | 1,479 | 84,749 | 2,389 | 2,020 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 603.5 | 699.0 | 104.2 | 1,045.8 | 313.5 | 126.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 7.85 | 5.38 | 14.19 | 81.04 | 7.62 | 15.99 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.28 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 7.85 | 5.38 | 14.19 | 11.13 | 7.62 | 15.99 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | CNY | USD | CNY | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.28 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |