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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0,5x - 0,6x | 0,5x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0,2x - 0,3x | 0,3x |
| Fair Value | 12,99¥ - 13,87¥ | 13,43¥ |
| Upside | 16,4% - 24,2% | 20,3% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Zhejiang Taotao Vehicles Co., Ltd. | 301345 | SZSE:301345 |
| Loncin Motor Co., Ltd. | 603766 | SHSE:603766 |
| Seres Group Co.,Ltd | 601127 | SHSE:601127 |
| Dongfeng Motor Group Company Limited | 489 | SEHK:489 |
| Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. | 601238 | SHSE:601238 |
| Jiangsu Xinri E-Vehicle Co., Ltd. | 603787 | SHSE:603787 |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| 301345 | 603766 | 601127 | 489 | 601238 | 603787 | |||
| SZSE:301345 | SHSE:603766 | SHSE:601127 | SEHK:489 | SHSE:601238 | SHSE:603787 | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 28.3% | 3.1% | 12.1% | -1.0% | 12.4% | 6.1% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 15.7% | 7.8% | 35.8% | -2.9% | 27.1% | -6.8% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 58.2% | 29.7% | 354.7% | 17.7% | -17.0% | -12.0% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 15.0% | 6.1% | -12.4% | -6.7% | -6.5% | 0.9% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 12.6% | 5.2% | -15.5% | -10.4% | -4.2% | 2.5% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 13.0% | 6.9% | -17.7% | -10.6% | -3.7% | 1.1% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 15.2% | 6.2% | 1.3% | -8.2% | -5.4% | 0.8% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.09x | 1.11x | 1.03x | -0.37x | 0.25x | 0.42x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 13.7x | 17.9x | 77.7x | 4.5x | -4.6x | 52.4x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 2.46x | 1.44x | 1.47x | 0.32x | 0.67x | 0.71x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | -0.37x | 1.03x | 2.09x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.24x | 0.43x | 0.79x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.50x | 0.53x | 0.56x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 3,623 | 3,623 | 3,623 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,823 | 1,919 | 2,015 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 1,065 | 1,065 | 1,065 | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 2,888 | 2,984 | 3,080 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 230.1 | 230.1 | 230.1 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 12.55 | 12.97 | 13.38 | |||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 12.55 | 12.97 | 13.38 | 11.16 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | 12.5% | 16.2% | 19.9% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 301345 | 603766 | 601127 | 489 | 601238 | 603787 | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,381 | 17,794 | 130,950 | (98,223) | 26,660 | 1,503 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,708 | 5,806 | 53,197 | 95,097 | 45,730 | 1,049 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 14 | 2,176 | 62,429 | 44,414 | 20 | |
| (-) Debt | (590) | (337) | (3,637) | (18,979) | (37,803) | (0) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (0) | (155) | 3,600 | (5,925) | (8,259) | (4) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 7,499 | 23,123 | 186,285 | 34,399 | 70,741 | 2,568 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 108.6 | 2,053.5 | 1,505.9 | 8,252.6 | 8,178.2 | 230.1 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 69.03 | 11.26 | 123.70 | 4.17 | 8.65 | 11.16 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 69.03 | 11.26 | 123.70 | 4.46 | 8.65 | 11.16 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | CNY | HKD | CNY | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |