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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 7,4x - 8,2x | 7,8x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 6,6x - 7,3x | 6,9x |
| Fair Value | 19,95¥ - 21,72¥ | 20,84¥ |
| Upside | 9,4% - 19,1% | 14,2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Shaanxi Provincial Natural Gas Co.,Ltd | 2267 | SZSE:002267 |
| Senton Energy Co.,Ltd. | 1331 | SZSE:001331 |
| Xinjiang Haoyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. | 2700 | SZSE:002700 |
| Nanjing Public Utilities Development Co., Ltd. | 421 | SZSE:000421 |
| Kunlun Energy Company Limited | 135 | SEHK:135 |
| Xinjiang East Universe Gas Co.Ltd. | 603706 | SHSE:603706 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 2267 | 1331 | 2700 | 421 | 135 | 603706 | ||
| SZSE:002267 | SZSE:001331 | SZSE:002700 | SZSE:000421 | SEHK:135 | SHSE:603706 | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 0.1% | NM- | 6.3% | -13.5% | 5.0% | 27.9% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 8.3% | NM- | 16.4% | -42.9% | 6.7% | 13.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 46.6% | 126.3% | -30.1% | -80.1% | -0.9% | 34.3% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 14.0% | 2.2% | 21.1% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 33.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 15.5% | 3.9% | 20.2% | 6.9% | 9.4% | 31.5% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 16.2% | -1.3% | 21.5% | 5.3% | 8.8% | 34.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 17.1% | 0.3% | 16.5% | 2.5% | 8.8% | 35.2% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.30x | 0.28x | 5.13x | 1.35x | 0.27x | 2.25x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.6x | 96.2x | 31.2x | 53.7x | 3.1x | 6.4x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 11.7x | 2560.4x | 37.6x | -131.5x | 4.2x | 10.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.1x | 31.2x | 96.2x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.8x | 8.0x | 20.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.4x | 7.8x | 8.2x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 446 | 446 | 446 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 3,303 | 3,477 | 3,651 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 604 | 604 | 604 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 3,908 | 4,082 | 4,255 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 189.4 | 189.4 | 189.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 20.63 | 21.55 | 22.47 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 20.63 | 21.55 | 22.47 | 18.24 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | 13.1% | 18.2% | 23.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 2267 | 1331 | 2700 | 421 | 135 | 603706 | |
| Enterprise Value | 11,171 | 1,445 | 3,511 | 6,658 | 50,786 | 2,850 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 890 | 1,255 | 478 | 1,514 | 45,092 | 818 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 565 | 37 | 0 | 866 | 14,988 | 71 | |
| (-) Debt | (3,306) | (211) | (1) | (4,441) | (24,279) | (161) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (301) | 0 | (6) | (1,135) | (23,686) | (123) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 9,019 | 2,526 | 3,983 | 3,462 | 62,901 | 3,454 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,112.1 | 201.6 | 413.6 | 576.1 | 8,658.8 | 189.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 8.11 | 12.53 | 9.63 | 6.01 | 7.26 | 18.24 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 8.11 | 12.53 | 9.63 | 6.01 | 7.78 | 18.24 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | HKD | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 1.00 | |