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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 32,1x - 35,5x | 33,8x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 15,7x - 17,4x | 16,5x |
| Fair Value | 55,07¥ - 60,85¥ | 57,96¥ |
| Upside | -6,4% - 3,4% | -1,5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co., Ltd. | 600559 | SHSE:600559 |
| Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.,Ltd | 600197 | SHSE:600197 |
| Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. | 2304 | SZSE:002304 |
| Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited | 600600 | SHSE:600600 |
| Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Company Limited | 600616 | SHSE:600616 |
| Shede Spirits Co., Ltd. | 600702 | SHSE:600702 |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 600559 | 600197 | 2304 | 600600 | 600616 | 600702 | ||
| SHSE:600559 | SHSE:600197 | SZSE:002304 | SHSE:600600 | SHSE:600616 | SHSE:600702 | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 16.9% | -2.8% | 4.5% | 25.7% | NM- | -4.6% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 24.6% | 1.6% | 19.1% | 23.9% | NM- | -29.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 103.4% | 38.8% | -24.2% | 2.8% | 81.7% | -74.6% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 12.8% | 20.9% | 37.0% | 10.8% | -5.5% | 30.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 13.2% | 13.3% | 38.9% | 12.9% | -10.5% | 31.5% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 15.2% | 20.1% | 36.9% | 14.0% | -1.9% | 10.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 17.1% | 20.4% | 32.9% | 14.0% | -1.9% | 10.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.65x | 3.12x | 2.71x | 2.06x | 4.82x | 3.62x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 13.1x | 12.3x | 7.7x | 12.0x | 98.9x | 25.8x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 15.5x | 15.3x | 8.2x | 14.8x | -254.5x | 34.3x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -254.5x | 14.8x | 15.5x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 13.3x | 34.3x | 46.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 32.1x | 33.8x | 35.5x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 566 | 566 | 566 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 18,165 | 19,121 | 20,077 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 72 | 72 | 72 | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 18,237 | 19,194 | 20,150 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 330.6 | 330.6 | 330.6 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 55.16 | 58.05 | 60.94 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 55.16 | 58.05 | 60.94 | 58.82 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -6.2% | -1.3% | 3.6% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 600559 | 600197 | 2304 | 600600 | 600616 | 600702 | |
| Enterprise Value | 14,522 | 6,997 | 82,170 | 66,368 | 2,786 | 19,376 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 2,425 | 415 | 27,158 | 20,169 | 970 | 1,543 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 69 | 200 | 6,465 | 7,482 | 2 | 18 | |
| (-) Debt | (1) | (191) | (66) | (110) | (60) | (1,166) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (62) | (108) | (799) | 16 | (323) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 17,014 | 7,359 | 115,620 | 93,110 | 3,713 | 19,449 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 914.7 | 472.0 | 1,506.4 | 1,168.0 | 669.0 | 330.6 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 18.60 | 15.59 | 76.75 | 79.72 | 5.55 | 58.82 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 18.60 | 15.59 | 76.75 | 79.72 | 5.55 | 58.82 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |