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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 3,4x - 3,8x | 3,6x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 3,1x - 3,4x | 3,2x |
| Fair Value | 23,34¥ - 25,51¥ | 24,42¥ |
| Upside | 25,8% - 37,5% | 31,7% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Xinjiang Yilite Industry Co.,Ltd | 600197 | SHSE:600197 |
| Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co., Ltd. | 2304 | SZSE:002304 |
| Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited | 600600 | SHSE:600600 |
| Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Company Limited | 600616 | SHSE:600616 |
| Shede Spirits Co., Ltd. | 600702 | SHSE:600702 |
| Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co., Ltd. | 600559 | SHSE:600559 |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| 600197 | 2304 | 600600 | 600616 | 600702 | 600559 | |||
| SHSE:600197 | SZSE:002304 | SHSE:600600 | SHSE:600616 | SHSE:600702 | SHSE:600559 | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 1.0% | 6.5% | 5.0% | -8.6% | 15.1% | 8.0% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 7.4% | 16.2% | 6.9% | -2.0% | 2.5% | 13.5% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 14.4% | -10.5% | -6.2% | 0.9% | -24.3% | 9.0% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 20.9% | 37.0% | 10.4% | -5.2% | 30.2% | 12.8% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 13.3% | 38.9% | 11.5% | -10.5% | 31.5% | 13.2% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 20.1% | 36.9% | 12.9% | -1.9% | 10.6% | 15.2% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 20.4% | 32.9% | 14.1% | -1.9% | 10.6% | 17.1% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 3.10x | 2.72x | 1.88x | 4.59x | 3.55x | 2.64x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 15.2x | 8.3x | 13.4x | -40.8x | 33.6x | 15.5x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 3.27x | 3.82x | 2.75x | 6.22x | 3.56x | 3.09x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 1.88x | 3.10x | 4.59x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 2.41x | 4.90x | 7.40x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 3.41x | 3.59x | 3.77x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 5,499 | 5,499 | 5,499 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 18,779 | 19,767 | 20,755 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 2,493 | 2,493 | 2,493 | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 21,271 | 22,259 | 23,248 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 914.7 | 914.7 | 914.7 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 23.25 | 24.33 | 25.41 | |||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 23.25 | 24.33 | 25.41 | 18.55 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | 25.4% | 31.2% | 37.0% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 600197 | 2304 | 600600 | 600616 | 600702 | 600559 | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,959 | 82,471 | 60,637 | 2,599 | 18,999 | 14,476 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 415 | 27,158 | 25,183 | 970 | 1,543 | 2,425 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 200 | 6,465 | 2,835 | 2 | 18 | 69 | |
| (-) Debt | (191) | (66) | (109) | (60) | (1,166) | (1) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (62) | (108) | (875) | 16 | (323) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 7,321 | 115,921 | 87,671 | 3,526 | 19,072 | 16,969 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 472.0 | 1,506.4 | 1,145.6 | 669.0 | 330.6 | 914.7 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 15.51 | 76.95 | 76.53 | 5.27 | 57.68 | 18.55 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 15.51 | 76.95 | 76.53 | 5.27 | 57.68 | 18.55 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |