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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 58,9x - 65,0x | 61,9x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 27,1x - 30,0x | 28,6x |
| Fair Value | 0,79₱ - 0,87₱ | 0,83₱ |
| Upside | -31,2% - -23,9% | -27,5% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Alternergy Holdings Corporation | ALTER | PSE:ALTER |
| Aboitiz Power Corporation | AP | PSE:AP |
| First Gen Corporation | FGEN | PSE:FGEN |
| Acen Corporation | ACEN | PSE:ACEN |
| Repower Energy Development Corporation | REDC | PSE:REDC |
| SP New Energy Corporation | SPNEC | PSE:SPNEC |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| ALTER | AP | FGEN | ACEN | REDC | SPNEC | ||
| PSE:ALTER | PSE:AP | PSE:FGEN | PSE:ACEN | PSE:REDC | PSE:SPNEC | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | -1.1% | 1.7% | 43.5% | NM- | NM- | |
| 3Y CAGR | 40.6% | 5.3% | 0.7% | 12.2% | 46.0% | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 7.0% | 21.6% | -16.8% | 274.8% | 6.8% | 337.7% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 20.6% | 26.3% | 33.4% | 13.2% | 65.9% | 43.6% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 15.4% | 20.8% | 28.1% | 4.3% | 77.8% | NA | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 50.0% | 20.7% | 31.4% | 15.9% | 69.6% | 48.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 48.0% | 24.3% | 28.7% | 15.9% | 69.6% | 50.4% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 16.29x | 1.91x | 1.04x | 4.84x | 10.92x | 44.77x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 33.9x | 7.8x | 3.6x | 30.4x | 15.7x | 88.8x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 55.1x | 10.1x | 5.4x | 49.7x | 24.4x | 227.8x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 3.6x | 15.7x | 33.9x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -249.7x | 49.5x | 348.8x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 58.9x | 61.9x | 65.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 649 | 649 | 649 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 38,198 | 40,208 | 42,219 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (59) | (59) | (59) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 38,139 | 40,149 | 42,160 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 50,073.1 | 50,073.1 | 50,073.1 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 0.76 | 0.80 | 0.84 | ||||
| FX Rate: PHP/PHP | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.76 | 0.80 | 0.84 | 1.15 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -33.8% | -30.3% | -26.8% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | ALTER | AP | FGEN | ACEN | REDC | SPNEC | |
| Enterprise Value | 8,579 | 375,222 | 2,541 | 177,887 | 5,679 | 57,643 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 4,147 | 59,158 | 713 | 31,025 | 65 | 6,975 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 116 | 95,793 | 31 | 69,641 | 40 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (8,021) | (240,112) | (2,111) | (148,011) | (2,285) | (3,607) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (650) | (11,916) | (661) | (9,898) | (139) | (3,234) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 535 | (25) | 0 | (194) | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 4,170 | 278,146 | 1,048 | 120,619 | 3,361 | 57,584 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 3,933.8 | 7,205.9 | 3,596.6 | 39,677.4 | 650.0 | 50,073.1 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 1.06 | 38.60 | 0.29 | 3.04 | 5.17 | 1.15 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.02 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 1.06 | 38.60 | 16.68 | 3.04 | 5.17 | 1.15 | |
| Trading Currency | PHP | PHP | PHP | PHP | PHP | PHP | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.02 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |