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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0,7x - 0,8x | 0,8x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0,7x - 0,8x | 0,8x |
| Fair Value | 70,52$ - 77,27$ | 73,90$ |
| Upside | 10,8% - 21,4% | 16,1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Esso S.A.F. | ES | ENXTPA:ES |
| Aker BP ASA | AKRBP | OB:AKRBP |
| PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited | PTTG | DB:PTTG |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation | OPC | DB:OPC |
| Devon Energy Corporation | DY6 | DB:DY6 |
| TotalEnergies SE | TTFN.F | OTCPK:TTFN.F |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| ES | AKRBP | PTTG | OPC | DY6 | TTFN.F | |||
| ENXTPA:ES | OB:AKRBP | DB:PTTG | DB:OPC | DB:DY6 | OTCPK:TTFN.F | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 3.9% | 30.0% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 17.8% | 2.1% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 5.5% | 29.6% | 8.3% | 1.0% | 3.3% | 1.9% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -6.7% | -9.4% | 2.4% | -5.4% | 5.2% | -10.7% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 2.0% | 58.2% | 39.5% | 9.5% | 22.3% | 12.1% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 3.7% | 70.9% | 46.2% | 21.1% | 34.0% | 13.7% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 0.4% | 68.4% | 42.0% | 19.7% | 27.0% | 13.2% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 0.4% | 68.4% | 42.0% | 19.7% | 27.0% | 13.2% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.04x | 1.52x | 1.40x | 2.82x | 2.07x | 0.66x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 10.9x | 2.2x | 3.3x | 14.3x | 7.7x | 5.0x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.11x | 1.18x | 1.52x | 1.68x | 1.55x | 0.73x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.04x | 1.52x | 2.82x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.57x | 0.70x | 0.98x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.74x | 0.78x | 0.82x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 195,610 | 195,610 | 195,610 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 145,328 | 152,976 | 160,625 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 14,515 | 14,515 | 14,515 | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 159,843 | 167,491 | 175,140 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,248.1 | 2,248.1 | 2,248.1 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 71.10 | 74.50 | 77.90 | |||||
| FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 71.10 | 74.50 | 77.90 | 63.63 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | 11.7% | 17.1% | 22.4% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | ES | AKRBP | PTTG | OPC | DY6 | TTFN.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,902 | 18,480 | 11,262 | 75,236 | 31,225 | 128,535 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 0 | 4,147 | 4,229 | 2,132 | 811 | 32,758 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 0 | 563 | 3,159 | 727 | 38,375 | |
| (-) Debt | 0 | (8,076) | (3,761) | (27,104) | (9,256) | (54,221) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | (8) | (321) | (208) | (2,397) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | (8,287) | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,902 | 14,551 | 12,284 | 44,815 | 23,299 | 143,050 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 12.9 | 631.7 | 3,970.0 | 939.2 | 648.6 | 2,248.1 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 148.00 | 23.03 | 3.09 | 47.72 | 35.92 | 63.63 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 0.09 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 148.00 | 242.80 | 2.86 | 44.11 | 33.21 | 63.63 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | NOK | EUR | EUR | EUR | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 0.09 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.00 | |