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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 17,2x - 19,0x | 18,1x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 11,0x - 12,2x | 11,6x |
| Fair Value | 0,50$ - 0,56$ | 0,53$ |
| Upside | -20,3% - -11,9% | -16,1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Thai Beverage Public Company Limited | THAIBEV19 | SET:THAIBEV19 |
| Haad Thip Public Company Limited | HTC | SET:HTC |
| Carabao Group Public Company Limited | CBG | SET:CBG |
| Sula Vineyards Limited | SULA | NSEI:SULA |
| Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co., Ltd. | 600559 | SHSE:600559 |
| Osotspa Public Company Limited | OSOP.F | OTCPK:OSOP.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| THAIBEV19 | HTC | CBG | SULA | 600559 | OSOP.F | ||
| SET:THAIBEV19 | SET:HTC | SET:CBG | NSEI:SULA | SHSE:600559 | OTCPK:OSOP.F | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 5.8% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 19.9% | 15.5% | -5.4% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 8.4% | 6.7% | 2.1% | 42.1% | 21.7% | -10.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 5.1% | 5.6% | 38.9% | -14.9% | 74.1% | -10.6% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 16.2% | 15.4% | 23.2% | 26.1% | 16.1% | 15.4% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 14.7% | 13.0% | 17.4% | 29.5% | 16.5% | 14.2% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 15.2% | 13.1% | 21.7% | 30.0% | 18.4% | 12.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 15.2% | 13.1% | 21.7% | 25.1% | 20.2% | 12.2% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.53x | 0.93x | 3.25x | 4.76x | 2.69x | 1.69x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.1x | 7.1x | 14.9x | 19.0x | 13.3x | 13.8x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 11.9x | 9.9x | 17.9x | 23.4x | 15.7x | 23.0x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.1x | 13.3x | 19.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 13.8x | 20.8x | 21.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 17.2x | 18.1x | 19.0x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 3,314 | 3,314 | 3,314 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 56,887 | 59,881 | 62,875 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (45) | (45) | (45) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 56,843 | 59,837 | 62,831 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 3,390.3 | 3,390.3 | 3,390.3 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 16.77 | 17.65 | 18.53 | ||||
| FX Rate: THB/USD | 33.9 | 33.9 | 33.9 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.49 | 0.52 | 0.55 | 0.63 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -21.8% | -17.6% | -13.5% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | THAIBEV19 | HTC | CBG | SULA | 600559 | OSOP.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 518,452 | 7,646 | 63,989 | 27,775 | 14,878 | 72,706 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 55,629 | 91 | 1,384 | 151 | 2,425 | 2,190 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 75,695 | 4 | 100 | 0 | 69 | 695 | |
| (-) Debt | (240,721) | (1,069) | (3,092) | (3,515) | (1) | (2,630) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (79,847) | (0) | 119 | 0 | 0 | (299) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 329,209 | 6,672 | 62,500 | 24,411 | 17,371 | 72,661 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 25,130.5 | 401.9 | 1,000.0 | 84.4 | 914.7 | 3,390.3 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 13.10 | 16.60 | 62.50 | 289.20 | 18.99 | 21.43 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 33.95 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 13.10 | 16.60 | 62.50 | 289.20 | 18.99 | 0.63 | |
| Trading Currency | THB | THB | THB | INR | CNY | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 33.95 | |