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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 17,1x - 18,9x | 18,0x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 11,5x - 12,7x | 12,1x |
| Fair Value | 6,53$ - 8,33$ | 7,43$ |
| Upside | -6,3% - 19,6% | 6,6% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Suzano S.A. | SUZB3 | BOVESPA:SUZB3 |
| Billerud AB (publ) | BLRD.Y | OTCPK:BLRD.Y |
| Mayr-Melnhof Karton AG | MNHF.F | OTCPK:MNHF.F |
| Packaging Corporation of America | P1KG34 | BOVESPA:P1KG34 |
| International Paper Company | I1PC34 | BOVESPA:I1PC34 |
| Klabin S.A. | KLBA.Y | OTCPK:KLBA.Y |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| SUZB3 | BLRD.Y | MNHF.F | P1KG34 | I1PC34 | KLBA.Y | ||
| BOVESPA:SUZB3 | OTCPK:BLRD.Y | OTCPK:MNHF.F | BOVESPA:P1KG34 | BOVESPA:I1PC34 | OTCPK:KLBA.Y | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 45.2% | 17.7% | -5.5% | 1.5% | -10.8% | 17.0% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -4.0% | 7.1% | -3.6% | -3.9% | -16.7% | -6.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 35.7% | 276.2% | 14.1% | 3.0% | -17.8% | 13.4% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 32.7% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 15.1% | 7.8% | 19.8% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 27.0% | 1.6% | 4.0% | 14.4% | 6.2% | 16.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 30.8% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 13.8% | 5.2% | 17.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 30.8% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 13.8% | 5.2% | 17.3% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 3.19x | 0.74x | 0.75x | 2.34x | 1.85x | 3.02x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.4x | 6.1x | 7.3x | 11.7x | 16.9x | 8.1x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 10.4x | 13.1x | 16.1x | 17.0x | 35.8x | 17.5x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 10.4x | 16.1x | 35.8x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 9.8x | 14.8x | 35.5x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 17.1x | 18.0x | 18.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 3,403 | 3,403 | 3,403 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 58,337 | 61,407 | 64,477 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (35,896) | (35,896) | (35,896) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 22,441 | 25,511 | 28,582 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 590.8 | 590.8 | 590.8 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 37.99 | 43.18 | 48.38 | ||||
| FX Rate: BRL/USD | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 6.63 | 7.53 | 8.44 | 6.97 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -4.9% | 8.1% | 21.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | SUZB3 | BLRD.Y | MNHF.F | P1KG34 | I1PC34 | KLBA.Y | |
| Enterprise Value | 151,146 | 34,099 | 2,719 | 24,900 | 33,663 | 59,501 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 21,990 | 2,561 | 520 | 787 | 1,170 | 7,530 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 1,591 | 0 | 0 | 65 | 160 | 122 | |
| (-) Debt | (108,408) | (7,966) | (1,900) | (2,772) | (6,009) | (41,562) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (131) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (1,985) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 66,188 | 28,694 | 1,339 | 22,981 | 28,984 | 23,605 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,239.2 | 137.8 | 20.0 | 186.5 | 526.1 | 590.8 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 53.41 | 208.17 | 66.96 | 123.24 | 55.09 | 39.96 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 10.06 | 0.93 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 5.73 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 53.41 | 20.70 | 72.00 | 706.46 | 315.81 | 6.97 | |
| Trading Currency | BRL | USD | USD | BRL | BRL | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 10.06 | 0.93 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 5.73 | |