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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 21,2x - 23,4x | 22,3x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 6,7x - 7,4x | 7,0x |
| Fair Value | 0,33$ - 0,45$ | 0,39$ |
| Upside | -43,5% - -22,9% | -33,2% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Juneyao Airlines Co., Ltd | 603885 | SHSE:603885 |
| Spring Airlines Co., Ltd. | 601021 | SHSE:601021 |
| Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. | ULCC | NasdaqGS:ULCC |
| Finnair Oyj | FIA1S | HLSE:FIA1S |
| Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA | NAS | OB:NAS |
| Air China Limited | AICA.F | OTCPK:AICA.F |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 603885 | 601021 | ULCC | FIA1S | NAS | AICA.F | ||
| SHSE:603885 | SHSE:601021 | NasdaqGS:ULCC | HLSE:FIA1S | OB:NAS | OTCPK:AICA.F | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 8.9% | 11.0% | NM- | 3.4% | 12.5% | -12.1% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 105.9% | 70.2% | NM- | NM- | NM- | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 38.5% | 22.1% | -108.2% | -18.1% | 15.3% | 7.8% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 3.6% | 10.5% | -16.3% | -11.0% | -40.3% | -7.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | -30.5% | -20.3% | -2.7% | 17.2% | 9.5% | 8.3% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 17.1% | 23.8% | -5.4% | 13.8% | 7.9% | 7.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 15.3% | 22.0% | -5.4% | 13.8% | 7.9% | 7.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.55x | 3.13x | 1.18x | 0.50x | 0.49x | 1.82x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 16.7x | 14.2x | -21.8x | 3.6x | 6.2x | 24.1x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 24.9x | 21.7x | -16.1x | 13.3x | 8.0x | -365.1x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | -21.8x | 6.2x | 16.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | -247.4x | -57.9x | 24.1x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 21.2x | 22.3x | 23.4x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 12,634 | 12,634 | 12,634 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 268,041 | 282,148 | 296,255 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (189,086) | (189,086) | (189,086) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 78,955 | 93,062 | 107,169 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 32,116.9 | 32,116.9 | 32,116.9 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 2.46 | 2.90 | 3.34 | ||||
| FX Rate: CNY/USD | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.3 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.34 | 0.40 | 0.46 | 0.58 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -41.9% | -31.6% | -21.2% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 603885 | 601021 | ULCC | FIA1S | NAS | AICA.F | |
| Enterprise Value | 55,383 | 61,926 | 4,450 | 1,535 | 17,232 | 325,061 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,568 | 9,612 | 740 | 944 | 10,880 | 22,555 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 4,570 | 959 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 20,137 | |
| (-) Debt | (33,103) | (18,743) | (4,468) | (1,885) | (16,077) | (235,981) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4,202 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 28,430 | 53,754 | 722 | 593 | 12,121 | 135,975 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,188.6 | 976.8 | 227.7 | 204.8 | 963.9 | 32,116.9 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 12.99 | 55.03 | 3.17 | 2.90 | 12.58 | 4.23 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.30 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 12.99 | 55.03 | 3.17 | 2.90 | 12.58 | 0.58 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | USD | EUR | NOK | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 7.30 | |