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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0,2x - 0,3x | 0,3x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0,2x - 0,2x | 0,2x |
| Fair Value | 22,61R$ - 25,75R$ | 24,18R$ |
| Upside | 34,7% - 53,4% | 44,0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| TotalEnergies SE | TTE | BASE:TTE |
| PetroChina Company Limited | 857 | SEHK:857 |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras | PETR3 | BOVESPA:PETR3 |
| Petroreconcavo S.A. | RECV3 | BOVESPA:RECV3 |
| Cosan S.A. | CSAN3 | BOVESPA:CSAN3 |
| Ultrapar Participações S.A. | UGPA3 | BOVESPA:UGPA3 |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| TTE | 857 | PETR3 | RECV3 | CSAN3 | UGPA3 | |||
| BASE:TTE | SEHK:857 | BOVESPA:PETR3 | BOVESPA:RECV3 | BOVESPA:CSAN3 | BOVESPA:UGPA3 | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 2.1% | 3.1% | 13.2% | 57.2% | 26.5% | 8.4% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 1.9% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 46.4% | 20.8% | 6.8% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -10.7% | -2.5% | -4.1% | 16.0% | 11.4% | 5.9% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 12.1% | 6.2% | 38.7% | 31.4% | 16.9% | 2.1% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 14.8% | 8.3% | 39.8% | 24.2% | 19.2% | 3.1% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 13.2% | 8.4% | 31.7% | 29.0% | 22.7% | 2.9% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 13.2% | 8.4% | 31.7% | 29.0% | 22.7% | 2.9% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.57x | 0.46x | 1.52x | 1.43x | 1.65x | 0.19x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 4.7x | 5.5x | 4.8x | 4.9x | 7.3x | 6.8x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.63x | 0.45x | 0.86x | 1.20x | 0.29x | 0.14x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.46x | 1.43x | 1.65x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 0.15x | 0.28x | 0.45x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.24x | 0.26x | 0.27x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 133,499 | 133,499 | 133,499 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 32,444 | 34,151 | 35,859 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (7,796) | (7,796) | (7,796) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 24,647 | 26,355 | 28,063 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,082.1 | 1,082.1 | 1,082.1 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 22.78 | 24.35 | 25.93 | |||||
| FX Rate: BRL/BRL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 22.78 | 24.35 | 25.93 | 16.79 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | 35.7% | 45.1% | 54.5% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | TTE | 857 | PETR3 | RECV3 | CSAN3 | UGPA3 | |
| Enterprise Value | 107,371 | 1,389,095 | 749,317 | 4,663 | 72,870 | 25,966 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 32,351 | 227,586 | 46,651 | 1,057 | 20,177 | 4,625 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 37,829 | 295,628 | 7,686 | 16 | 21,341 | 4,035 | |
| (-) Debt | (54,221) | (355,474) | (373,467) | (1,815) | (72,965) | (15,791) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (2,397) | (194,491) | (1,508) | 0 | (28,495) | (665) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 120,933 | 1,362,344 | 428,679 | 3,922 | 12,928 | 18,169 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 5,248.4 | 276,261.4 | 12,888.7 | 293.1 | 1,862.8 | 1,082.1 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 23.04 | 4.93 | 33.26 | 13.38 | 6.94 | 16.79 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.00 | 0.94 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 24,800.00 | 5.24 | 33.26 | 13.38 | 6.94 | 16.79 | |
| Trading Currency | ARS | HKD | BRL | BRL | BRL | BRL | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.00 | 0.94 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |